About PAC-M

For analysing the cashflow of property portfolions, the Probability Adjusted Cashflow Model uses the probability of each event in a lease to project worst case, expected and probability adjusted cashflows for units, assets, sub-portfolios and the portfolio as a whole for up to 100 years, and:

  • Incorporates both revenue and capital expenditure
  • Uses the full suite of IPD Lease Events data
  • Allows sophisticated stress testing of portfolios and (forthcoming) loan books
  • Can use IPD Lease Events forecasts instead of historic lease events information
  • Allows users to add and remove assets from the analysis and reflect depreciation
  • Allows users to differentiate by quality, segment, location or user-defined classifications
  • Supports a range of different lease parameters (including those commonly found or standard in French, German etc. leases)

Can be used in: Portfolio Risk Modelling, Asset Analysis, Cashflow Modelling

Beneficial for: Asset Managers, Investors / Fund Managers, Lenders, Risk Analysts, Securitisation Teams, Rating Agencies, Strategists


  • Armageddon
  • Expected  – no rental growth or costs
  • Expected – with rental growth and costs
  • Probability Adjusted Cashflow

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